The Almanac

Market intelligence, production guidance, and business insights, written for farmers and ranchers who make decisions based on data.

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Policy & Programs 6 min read

Base Acres, Deadlines, and the 2026 Cash-Flow Check

USDA's new ARC/PLC base-acre review window, July acreage reporting, rainfall-index changes, and ERS farm-income forecasts all point to the same job: tighten records before summer decisions harden.

May 29, 2026 ยท AgAlmanac Policy DeskRead more
๐Ÿ“ˆ Markets & Prices

AgAlmanac Weekly Market Outlook: Memorial Day Pause, Export Demand, and Weather Set the Tone for Grain and Cattle Markets

Corn and soybeans enter the holiday-shortened week with export support, wheat needs fresh demand or weather concern, and cattle futures are digesting USDA's larger-than-expected placement number.

6 min readMay 26, 2026
๐Ÿ’ฐ Farm Finance

Farmers Are Getting Squeezed From Both Sides: Input Costs and Weather Risk Are Hitting at Once

Higher diesel and fertilizer prices, drought-stressed wheat, disease pressure, tariffs, and weak margins are stacking into one bigger problem: the cost of planting is becoming its own crop risk.

5 min readMay 20, 2026
๐Ÿ›๏ธ Policy & Programs

May 2026 Farm Policy Checklist: Disaster Aid, Crop Insurance, and the Farm Bill Are All Moving at Once

Spring 2026 is a paperwork-heavy season: SDRP disaster aid, crop insurance sales deadlines, CRP timing, working-capital pressure, and farm bill movement all need attention now.

7 min readMay 15, 2026
๐Ÿ“ˆ Markets & Prices

AgAlmanac Weekly Market Outlook: WASDE Week Sets the Tone for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Cattle

USDA's May WASDE is the pivot point this week as corn export strength, soybean crush demand, wheat weather risk, and cattle cash strength all compete for farmer and rancher attention.

7 min readMay 11, 2026
๐Ÿ’ฐ Farm Finance

Farm Finance Checkup: Payments Help, but Cash Flow Still Needs Discipline in 2026

USDA's new farm income forecast shows government payments rising and expenses staying stubborn. Here is what farmers and ranchers should do now on cash flow, operating debt, insurance dates, and program paperwork.

6 min readMay 8, 2026
๐Ÿ“ˆ Markets & Prices

AgAlmanac Weekly Market Outlook โ€” May 4, 2026

Corn, soybeans, wheat, cattle, fuel, fertilizer, and weather risk are all pulling on farm margins this week. Here is what farmers and ranchers should watch before making sales, input, and fieldwork decisions.

7 min readMay 4, 2026
โ˜๏ธ Weather & Climate

More Rain, More Risk: What a Developing El Niรฑo Could Mean for Spring Planting, Pasture, and Input Decisions in 2026

A possible shift toward El Niรฑo later in 2026 could change rainfall patterns, planting windows, pasture recovery, and commodity volatility. Here is what farmers and ranchers should actually be watching this spring.

7 min readApril 8, 2026
๐Ÿ“ˆ Markets & Prices

What Farmers Plan to Plant in 2026 โ€” and What It Means for Markets

USDA's Prospective Plantings report is in. Corn acres are down 3%, soybeans are up 4%, and geopolitical risk is overriding the fundamentals. Here's what it means for your operation.

6 min readApril 2, 2026
๐Ÿ“ˆ Markets & Prices

The Biggest Report of the Year Drops Tomorrow โ€” What Farmers Need to Know

USDA's Prospective Plantings report lands March 31. Analysts expect corn acres to fall sharply while soybeans gain. Here's what's driving the shift โ€” and how markets are likely to react.

5 min readMarch 30, 2026
๐Ÿ“ˆ Markets & Prices

Corn & Soybean Price Outlook: What to Watch This Spring

With South American harvest pressure easing and domestic demand holding steady, here's what's moving corn and soybean futures โ€” and what it means for your forward contracts.

5 min readMarch 5, 2026
๐Ÿ›๏ธ Policy & Programs

Farm Bill 2026: Where Things Stand and What Farmers Should Watch

Congress has been working on a new farm bill for over two years. Here's the honest status of negotiations, the key sticking points, and what it means for commodity programs and crop insurance.

6 min readMarch 4, 2026
๐Ÿ„ Livestock & Ranching

Cattle Market Outlook: Tight Supply Is Here to Stay

The U.S. beef cow herd is at its smallest since 1961. What that means for fed cattle prices, calf values, and your operation's opportunities in 2026.

5 min readMarch 3, 2026
โ˜๏ธ Weather & Climate

La Niรฑa's Grip on Spring 2026: What the Forecast Means for Planting

La Niรฑa conditions are expected to persist into spring 2026. Historical patterns suggest drier-than-normal conditions for key portions of the Corn Belt and Plains. Here's the breakdown.

5 min readMarch 2, 2026
๐ŸŒพ Crop Production

How Much Does Late Planting Really Cost You?

University data across the Corn Belt shows clear yield penalties for delayed planting. Here's the research โ€” and how to factor it into your spring planning.

4 min readMarch 1, 2026
๐Ÿ“ˆ Markets & Prices

Fertilizer Prices Ahead of Spring Application: Is Now the Time to Buy?

Anhydrous ammonia and DAP prices have pulled back from last year's highs. A breakdown of current price levels, what's driving them, and whether to buy now or wait.

4 min readFebruary 28, 2026
๐ŸŒพ Crop Production

Cover Crops: The Real Numbers Behind the Benefits

Cover crops are everywhere in ag conversations. But what do they actually do for your bottom line? We break down the documented benefits โ€” and the honest costs.

6 min readFebruary 20, 2026
๐Ÿ„ Livestock & Ranching

Hay Prices and the Drought Factor: What Livestock Producers Need to Know

Drought has tightened hay supplies across key producing regions. A look at current hay prices by region, quality premiums, and sourcing strategies.

4 min readFebruary 15, 2026
๐Ÿ’ฐ Farm Finance

Know Your Cost Per Bushel โ€” The Most Important Number in Farming

You can't make good marketing decisions without knowing your cost of production. Here's a plain-language breakdown of how to calculate yours โ€” and why most farmers underestimate it.

7 min readFebruary 10, 2026
๐ŸŒฑ Sustainability

Carbon Markets and Regenerative Ag: Separating Hype from Reality

Carbon credit programs have been pitched to farmers as a new revenue stream. An honest look at what programs are paying, what they require, and whether the numbers work.

6 min readFebruary 5, 2026
๐Ÿ”ง Technology & Equipment

Precision Ag ROI: What the Data Actually Shows

Variable rate seeding, prescription fertilizer, and yield mapping have been sold as profit centers. Independent research shows the reality is more nuanced โ€” here's what pencils and what doesn't.

5 min readJanuary 28, 2026