AgAlmanac Weekly Market Outlook: Memorial Day Pause, Export Demand, and Weather Set the Tone for Grain and Cattle Markets

The grain trade starts this shortened holiday week with Friday's closes as the latest clean price reference, because CME's 2026 holiday schedule lists Memorial Day, Monday, May 25, as closed with trading reopening Monday evening at 7:30 p.m. ET. On Friday, the most-active Chicago corn contract settled at $4.63 1/4 per bushel, soybeans settled at $11.96 1/2 per bushel, and Chicago wheat settled at $6.46 1/4 per bushel.

Corn enters the week with export demand carrying more weight than weather fear. USDA's weekly export sales report for the week ending May 14 showed old-crop corn net sales of 2,125,300 metric tons and new-crop sales of 281,400 metric tons. Reuters reported that those old-crop corn sales were above trade expectations, and it also reported USDA daily sales of 493,700 tons of corn to Mexico and 110,000 tons to unknown destinations on Friday.

That is why corn was able to finish slightly higher Friday even with weather forecasts limiting the upside.

The other side of the corn story is crop progress and field conditions. USDA's May 18 Crop Progress report, covering the week ending May 17, put U.S. corn planting at 70%, compared with the 2021-2025 average of 76%, and corn emergence at 37%, compared with the five-year average of 47%.

That lag keeps the weekly Crop Progress report important, but the market is not yet trading a full weather scare because near-term moisture has been generally helpful in many producing areas. DTN reported that Midwest precipitation averaged 3.27 inches in March, or 127% of normal, and 5.10 inches in April, or 139% of normal.

Soybeans have a similar setup: export business is supportive, but the market is still watching whether late-May fieldwork can close the gap. USDA FAS reported old-crop soybean net sales of 351,400 metric tons and new-crop sales of 172,700 metric tons for the week ending May 14.

USDA's May 18 Crop Progress report put soybean planting at 53%, below the 2021-2025 average of 63%, and soybean emergence at 23%, below the five-year average of 32%. Those numbers leave soybeans sensitive to any change in the planting forecast, especially because the next Crop Progress update is scheduled for Tuesday, May 26 at 4:00 p.m. ET after the Monday holiday.

Wheat is the weaker leg of the grain complex coming into the week. Reuters reported that Chicago wheat fell 1 1/4 cents Friday to settle at $6.46 1/4, while corn and soybeans both finished higher.

USDA FAS reported wheat net sales of 166,300 metric tons for the 2025/26 marketing year and 130,500 metric tons for 2026/27 for the week ending May 14. The wheat market also has global policy and production headlines in the mix: Reuters reported that Argentina plans to cut its wheat export tax from 7.5% to 5.5% starting in June.

Weather is not one-size-fits-all this week. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook, issued May 24 for May 30 through June 3, favors above-normal temperatures from the western U.S. into the Northern and Central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes, while below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the south-central and eastern U.S.

The same NOAA outlook favors near- to above-normal precipitation across much of the western U.S. and into the Great Plains, while below-normal precipitation chances increase across portions of the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valleys, Great Lakes, and Northeast. For farmers, that means planting progress may improve in some areas while emerging corn and soybeans still need close local monitoring where rainfall misses.

Cattle markets carry a different kind of risk into the week after USDA's May Cattle on Feed data. Pro Farmer reported that USDA put May 1 cattle on feed at 11.6 million head, up 2% from a year earlier, with April placements at 1.70 million head, up 6%, and April marketings at 1.64 million head, down 10%.

Pro Farmer also reported that placements and cattle-on-feed totals topped average Reuters survey expectations. For ranchers and feeders, that report may keep futures volatile even though the longer-term supply backdrop remains tight. Pro Farmer noted the May report was the first year-over-year rise in cattle on feed in 18 months and said that history still reflects a historically tight cattle supply situation.

Reports to Watch This Week

USDA NASS lists Monday, May 25 as a holiday, Crop Progress for Tuesday, May 26 at 4:00 p.m. ET, Slaughter Weekly on Thursday, May 28, and Agricultural Prices on Friday, May 29 at 3:00 p.m. ET.

USDA AMS lists Weekly Grains Inspected for Export as a weekly Monday report, so export inspections should be watched when the holiday schedule allows publication.

Bottom Line

Corn and soybeans have enough export support to keep sellers cautious, but improving weather and the holiday-shortened trade can cap rallies quickly. Wheat needs fresh demand or weather concern to regain leadership after Friday's softer close. Cattle producers should expect the market to digest the larger-than-expected placement number while still respecting the broader tight-supply story.