What Farmers Plan to Plant in 2026 — and What It Means for Markets

Every spring, before a single seed goes in the ground, USDA asks nearly 74,000 farmers what they plan to plant. The answers — released Tuesday in the annual Prospective Plantings report — set the tone for commodity markets for the rest of the year.

Here's what the 2026 report is telling us.

Corn: Pulling Back After a Record Year

Farmers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026 — down 3% from last year's 90-year high of 98.8 million acres. That's a meaningful pullback, though it came in above USDA's own February projection of 94 million, suggesting farmers were slightly more committed to corn than the pre-report consensus expected.

Acreage is declining in 37 of 48 estimating states, with the biggest drops in the Corn Belt: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin are each expected to shed 300,000+ acres.

The signal is clear: last year's corn margins didn't pencil out the way producers hoped. Meanwhile, corn stockpiles are building — the Quarterly Grain Stocks report shows 9.02 billion bushels in storage as of March 1, up 11% from a year ago. On-farm stocks alone are up 21%. That's a lot of corn sitting in bins.

Soybeans: The Rotation Winner

With corn pulling back, soybeans are picking up the slack. Growers plan to plant 84.7 million acres — up 4% from last year, though just below the average pre-report trade guess. States making the biggest moves into beans: Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is on track for a record high soybean acreage. Notable for a state most people think of as dairy country.

Soybean stocks are also building — 2.10 billion bushels in storage, up 10% from last March — but demand signals, especially export pace, will matter more than supply headlines this summer.

Wheat: Across the Board Declines

All wheat categories are down:

- All wheat: 43.8 million acres, down 3% - Winter wheat: 32.4 million acres, down 2% - Spring wheat: 9.42 million acres, down 6% - Durum: 1.95 million acres, down 11% — the steepest drop of the group

Durum is worth watching. An 11% planting cut with durum stocks up 21% from a year ago doesn't suggest a bullish setup. Pasta prices aren't the story here — margins are.

Cotton: Bucking the Trend

Cotton is the one commodity moving up in acreage intentions — 9.64 million acres, up 4% from last year. That came in above what most traders expected (pre-report consensus was around 9.22 million). If the Southeast and Southwest get decent moisture this spring, that extra acreage could weigh on prices into harvest.

The Wildcard: Geopolitics Are Overriding the Numbers

Here's what the acreage report alone won't tell you: money is moving into commodity markets right now for reasons that have nothing to do with planted acres. The Strait of Hormuz closure tied to Iran tensions is pushing capital into food and energy commodities, creating a price tailwind even as supply fundamentals are bearish for corn.

"Prices are a function of supply and demand, but they are modified by the flow of money — and that's certainly been true this week," noted Arlan Suderman of StoneX on Tuesday. Translation: don't expect the bearish corn acreage numbers to drag prices down cleanly while geopolitical risk premiums are this elevated. Watch how that situation develops before making any major marketing decisions.

What This Means If You're Farming in 2026

1. The corn-to-beans rotation is real. If you're in a rotation year, the crowd is moving the same direction you are.

2. Big corn stocks + declining acres = still plenty of supply. Don't expect a price spike on the acreage news alone. Demand — domestic ethanol usage, export competition with Brazil — will drive price more than planted acres this year. The geopolitical premium is the X factor.

3. Spring wheat acres down 6% is the sleeper story. Northern Plains farmers are pulling back hard. Watch basis levels at northern elevators this summer if you're buying wheat-heavy feed rations.

4. These are intentions, not commitments. The report is based on surveys from early March. Planting decisions can shift through April and May based on weather, input costs, and price moves. USDA's June Acreage report tells the real story.

The Bottom Line

2026 looks like a rotation year — away from corn, toward soybeans. But with geopolitical uncertainty driving money into commodity markets, the fundamentals aren't trading in isolation right now. Keep one eye on the field and one eye on the news.

Check AgAlmanac for commodity price updates as markets digest these numbers through the week.