AgAlmanac Weekly Market Outlook: WASDE Week Sets the Tone for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Cattle

Grain markets start this week with one big calendar item in front of them: USDA's May WASDE, scheduled for release Tuesday, May 12 at 12:00 p.m. ET. USDA says WASDE provides annual forecasts for U.S. and world supply and use of wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds, cotton, livestock, dairy, and other commodities. This month's report is especially important because it introduces USDA's first full 2026/27 balance sheets.

Corn is trying to hold early-week strength after a softer prior week. Barchart reported Monday morning that front-month corn futures were up 3 to 4 3/4 cents, with July corn previously closing Friday at $4.71 1/4 and December corn at $4.93 1/2. Barchart also reported the national average cash corn price at $4.30 3/4.

The main support under corn remains export demand. Barchart cited USDA export sales data showing 2025/26 corn export commitments at 77.063 million metric tons, up 28% from the same period last year and equal to 92% of USDA's export projection. Corn shipments were reported at 56.14 million metric tons, up 29% from last year and 67% of USDA's projection.

The other corn variable is planting pace. USDA's latest crop progress data, summarized by Brownfield, showed U.S. corn planting at 38% and emergence at 13% as of May 3, both ahead of their five-year averages.

That creates a tug-of-war: strong exports are supportive, but fast planting can cap rallies if weather stays cooperative. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecast for May 16-20 favors above-normal temperatures across most of the contiguous U.S. and above-normal precipitation through much of the central U.S., including Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, and the Dakotas.

Soybeans are also starting the week firmer. Barchart reported Monday morning soybean futures were 3 to 8 cents higher, with July soybeans previously closing Friday at $12.03 1/4 and November soybeans at $11.82 3/4. Barchart listed the national average cash soybean price at $11.37 3/4.

Soybeans have a different setup than corn. USDA export sales data cited by Barchart showed soybean commitments at 38.776 million metric tons, down 18% from the same week last year and 4 percentage points behind the five-year average pace.

Domestic crush is the stronger side of the soybean story. Barchart cited USDA's monthly Fats & Oils report showing March soybean crush at 227.36 million bushels, up 6.15% from February and up 9.98% from March 2025, while marketing-year crush reached 1.651 billion bushels, up 8.5% from the same period last year.

For growers, that means soybean bids may stay sensitive to oilseed demand and crush margins even if export news stays uneven. Barchart reported soybean oil futures were stronger Friday, and Reuters/MarketScreener reported soybeans rose on China demand hopes and higher oil prices.

Wheat enters the week with more weather premium and more uncertainty. Barchart reported Friday that Chicago SRW wheat finished 5 3/4 to 7 3/4 cents higher, Kansas City HRW wheat finished 7 3/4 to 11 1/4 cents higher, and Minneapolis spring wheat finished 4 3/4 to 7 1/4 cents higher. July Chicago wheat closed at $6.19, July Kansas City wheat at $6.75 3/4, and July Minneapolis wheat at $6.79 1/2.

USDA crop condition remains a concern for winter wheat. Brownfield's summary of USDA Crop Progress reported 37% of winter wheat rated poor to very poor as of May 3, up 2 percentage points on the week, largely due to drought in the Plains. The same report said 49% of winter wheat had headed, compared with 32% on average.

Spring wheat is behind normal on planting. Brownfield reported 32% of spring wheat planted and 10% emerged as of May 3, with planting slower than normal and emergence just ahead of usual.

The cattle market is still strong in the cash trade, even after futures weakened late last week. Brownfield reported Friday that June live cattle closed $1.15 lower at $248.90, August live cattle closed $1.80 lower at $244.10, August feeder cattle closed $1.95 lower at $364.22, and September feeder cattle closed $2.42 lower at $362.22.

Cash cattle, however, moved higher. Brownfield reported Northern dressed cattle deals mostly at $402, about $3 higher than the prior week's weighted average, while Southern live cattle traded mostly at $256 to $257, about $2 to $3 higher than the prior week's weighted averages.

Boxed beef also stayed firm. Brownfield reported Choice boxed beef up $1.45 at $388.39 and Select up $0.59 at $385.01, with a Choice/Select spread of $3.38.

For ranchers, the signal is mixed but still constructive: futures backed off, cash cattle advanced, boxed beef improved, and feeder cattle remain highly sensitive to corn moves. Brownfield specifically tied Friday's lower live and feeder cattle futures to technical selling and the higher move in corn.

What to Watch This Week

1. USDA Crop Progress, scheduled for Monday, May 11 at 4:00 p.m. ET, according to the NASS reports calendar.

2. USDA WASDE, scheduled for Tuesday, May 12 at 12:00 p.m. ET.

3. USDA FAS World Agricultural Production, Grains: World Markets and Trade, and Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, scheduled for Tuesday, May 12 at 12:15 p.m. ET.

4. USDA FAS Weekly Export Sales, listed for Thursday, May 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Bottom Line

Corn has export support but must defend value against fast planting. Soybeans are leaning on crush and oil strength while exports lag. Wheat needs weather help in the Plains. Cattle producers are watching whether cash strength can keep outrunning feed-cost pressure.

This is a week where USDA numbers can reset expectations quickly, so farmers and ranchers should treat Tuesday's WASDE as the pivot point rather than chasing Monday's early price action.