Tomorrow at 11 a.m. CDT, USDA releases the 2026 Prospective Plantings report — the first hard look at how many acres farmers actually intend to plant this spring. For corn and soybean markets, this is the single most market-moving report of the year. Here's what to expect and what it means for your operation.

What Analysts Are Expecting

The consensus among analysts surveyed by Reuters puts 2026 corn planted acres at roughly 94.4 million — down approximately 4.4 million acres from the 98.8 million planted in 2025. That would be the lowest corn acreage since 2020.

Soybeans are expected to pick up most of those shifted acres. Survey data from Kluis/SF puts soybean intentions at 84.4 million acres, up year-over-year, though slightly below USDA's February outlook. USDA will also release the quarterly Grain Stocks report simultaneously, with analysts expecting corn stocks around 9.1 billion bushels as of March 1.

Why Corn Is Losing Acres

The math is blunt: corn is expected to generate roughly $20 less per acre than soybeans in 2026, a near-reversal from last year when soybeans were the underdog. The February soybean-to-corn crop insurance price ratio came in at 2.4 — a level that historically pushes farmers toward a more soybean-heavy mix.

Fertilizer costs remain elevated for corn relative to soybeans (soybeans fix their own nitrogen), and input cost uncertainty tied to ongoing trade friction has made the lower-input soybean rotation more attractive.

Where Corn Finds Support

It's not all bearish for corn. President Trump's White House "Celebration of Agriculture" event last week included continued pressure for year-round E15 fuel blending — a policy that would meaningfully boost domestic corn demand if enacted. Ethanol margins are currently positive, and feed demand has been steady.

May corn closed Friday at $4.62, down 5 cents on the session but holding above the key $4.60 support level that had roughly 14,000 contracts in open interest at expiration.

The Soybean Picture

May soybeans are trading around $11.59 as of Friday's close, rangebound between the 20 and 40-day moving averages for the past 10 days. A flash sale of 105,000 metric tons to unknown destinations provided a brief positive signal last week, but the market largely shrugged it off.

The renewable fuel volume obligation (RVO) announcement last week was initially bullish — the 2026 RVO came in at 7.12 billion RINs, well above early leak estimates of 5.61 billion. But soybean oil sold off on the news in classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" fashion. Longer term, stronger RVOs support crush demand and soybean prices.

November soybeans — the new-crop contract farmers price against — are at $11.44, up slightly on the week. That's the contract to watch after tomorrow's report.

Wheat: Southern Plains Stress Continues

Kansas City HRW wheat has been the quiet outperformer this week, closing Friday at $6.32-¾ on the May contract. Expanding drought in the Southern Plains, combined with temperatures forecast 3–11°F above normal over the next 15 days with limited rainfall in sight, has kept a bid under hard red winter wheat.

The EU soft wheat crop for 2026/27 is projected to fall to 125.9 MMT — down from 134.2 MMT this season — adding further global supply tightness to the wheat picture.

What to Watch Tuesday

If corn acres come in below 94 million, expect a sharp short-covering rally — bulls would argue that supply is getting tight enough to demand rationing. If acres come in above 95 million, watch for a selloff as the market adjusts its carryout estimates higher.

For soybeans, the acreage number matters less than the March 1 grain stocks figure. Tight stocks would be bullish; a surprise build would pressure the market.

What It Means for Your Operation

If you have unpriced 2025 corn in the bin, Tuesday's volatility could be a selling opportunity — either way. Reports of this size tend to create a one-day price spike (in either direction) followed by a reversion as the market digests the numbers. Setting a target price at resistance before the report is a cleaner strategy than reacting to the print.

For new-crop decisions, the acreage data will reset USDA's supply and demand models heading into the May WASDE. If corn acres fall as expected, the summer weather risk premium in December corn futures gets more significant — worth considering if you're evaluating put option coverage.