Grain markets opened Monday with weather back in the driver's seat. As of delayed Monday morning quotes, December 2026 corn was near 473.75 cents per bushel, down 13.75 cents from Friday's settlement; November 2026 soybeans were near 1,220.25 cents, down 33.25 cents; and September Chicago wheat was near 675 cents, down 3 cents. Sources: MarketWatch corn, MarketWatch soybeans, MarketWatch wheat.
The corn trade is balancing a tighter USDA balance sheet against a slightly wetter near-term forecast. USDA's July WASDE lowered 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks from 1.960 billion bushels in June to 1.790 billion bushels in July, while Farm Futures reported USDA held corn yield at 183.0 bushels per acre and projected production at 16.0 billion bushels. Sources: Agriculture of America, Farm Progress. That means pollination weather still matters: DTN reported USDA had corn 59% silking as of July 19, ahead of both last year and the five-year average, while condition slipped to 67% good-to-excellent from 68% the prior week. Source: DTN Crop Progress.
Soybeans are also trading a weather-versus-demand setup. Barchart reported Monday morning soybean futures were under pressure from a wetter forecast and sharply lower crude oil, after November soybeans gained 50 1/2 cents the prior week. Source: Barchart soybeans. USDA left 2026/27 U.S. soybean ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels in the July WASDE, while Farm Futures reported USDA raised soybean production to 4.475 billion bushels on higher harvested area. Sources: Agriculture of America, Farm Progress. USDA crop progress showed soybeans 66% blooming and 32% setting pods as of July 19, with national condition at 66% good-to-excellent. Source: DTN Crop Progress.
Wheat remains the tightest-feeling grain story. USDA's July WASDE projected 2026/27 U.S. wheat production at 1.536 billion bushels, the lowest since 1970/71, and lowered projected ending stocks to 722 million bushels, down 22% from last year. Source: USDA WASDE July 2026. Farm Futures also reported global wheat ending stocks fell from 275.42 million metric tons in June to 272.84 million metric tons in July. Source: Farm Progress. Monday's wheat trade was softer after last week's rally, with Barchart reporting Chicago wheat down 6 to 8 cents Monday morning and Kansas City hard red winter wheat down 10 to 14 3/4 cents in nearby contracts in the prior session. Source: Barchart wheat.
The forecast gives both bulls and bears something to argue about. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center 6-to-10-day outlook for Aug. 1-5 favors above-normal temperatures for most of the contiguous U.S., with below-normal precipitation for parts of the Northern and Central Plains. NOAA's 8-to-14-day outlook for Aug. 3-9 keeps above-normal temperatures favored for most of the country and shows below-normal precipitation from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the Northern Plains and Central Plains. Source: NOAA CPC discussion. That matters because USDA's latest crop progress had corn entering pollination and soybeans moving further into pod-setting, both periods when rainfall and heat can swing yield expectations. Source: DTN Crop Progress.
Cattle markets are still supported by tight supplies. RFD-TV, citing USDA's July Cattle on Feed report, said cattle and calves on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more totaled 10.73 million head on July 1, down 2% from a year earlier, while June placements were 1.43 million head, also down 2%. Source: RFD-TV. USDA's Cattle on Feed report is monthly and tracks feedlot inventory, placements, marketings, and other disappearance. Source: USDA ESMIS. For ranchers, that keeps the focus on pasture conditions, replacement decisions, and feeder-cattle availability, all of which RFD-TV identified as market points following the July report. Source: RFD-TV.
The report calendar is busy enough to keep markets reactive. USDA lists Crop Progress for Monday, July 27, Livestock and Meat Domestic Data for Tuesday, July 28, Slaughter Weekly for Thursday, July 30, and Agricultural Prices, Agricultural Land Values, and Agricultural Cash Rent for Friday, July 31. Source: USDA scheduled releases. Crop Progress is the key grain report because it updates condition ratings during pollination and pod-setting, while the livestock and slaughter data will help cattle producers watch beef supply signals after the July Cattle on Feed report. Sources: USDA scheduled releases, USDA ESMIS.
Bottom line: grain prices are not trading only the July WASDE anymore. They are trading whether August weather protects or trims yield potential. Corn has a smaller USDA carryout cushion than it had in June, soybeans are watching pod-setting weather after a strong week, and wheat has the clearest supply-side support from USDA's lower production and stocks estimates. Sources: Agriculture of America, Farm Progress, USDA WASDE. For farmers and ranchers, this is a week to watch weather updates, basis opportunities, and USDA's Monday and Friday data before making big pricing decisions.