As of Monday afternoon, August 3, Chicago futures were starting the week softer across the main row-crop contracts: AHDB's delayed market table showed CME September corn at 438.50 cents per bushel, December corn at 461.50, September soybeans at 1162.75, November soybeans at 1179.75, and September Chicago wheat at 640.25. AHDB notes its futures table was last updated at 14:25 on Monday, August 3, and that market data is at least 10 minutes delayed.
Corn is entering the week with weather and crop-condition risk doing most of the talking. Barchart reported Monday morning that corn futures were down 3 to 4 cents, after Friday losses of 1 1/2 to 5 cents. USDA's July 27 Crop Progress update showed the national corn crop rated 63% good to excellent as of July 26, down from 67% the prior week and below 73% a year earlier, according to DTN's summary of the USDA NASS report. Successful Farming's summary of the same USDA report said 78% of corn had reached silking and 25% had reached dough, both ahead of their five-year averages. That mix matters: the crop is moving along, but the market will be sensitive to whether August heat trims yield potential.
Soybeans are also leaning on weather and demand headlines. Barchart reported Monday morning that soybeans were trading 8 to 9 cents lower, after most contracts lost 1 to 5 1/4 cents on Friday, while the November contract still held a 43 3/4-cent gain for the prior month. USDA's July 27 Crop Progress numbers showed soybeans at 63% good to excellent, down 3 points from the prior week and below 70% a year earlier, according to DTN's report. Successful Farming reported that 80% of soybeans were blooming and 47% were setting pods as of July 26, ahead of five-year averages of 74% and 39%. Barchart also reported market chatter that China bought 14 to 16 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Friday, which is supportive if confirmed in USDA sales data.
Wheat has a different feel. AHDB's delayed table showed September Chicago wheat slightly higher by 1 cent at 640.25, but Barchart reported Monday morning that wheat was down 1 to 4 cents across front months after a weaker close Friday. The winter wheat harvest was 81% complete as of July 26, just ahead of the five-year average of 79%, while spring wheat harvest was 2% complete and in line with the five-year average, according to Successful Farming's USDA Crop Progress summary. Barchart said September Chicago wheat lost 38 3/4 cents last week but remained 50 cents higher on the month, while September KC wheat lost 37 3/4 cents last week but gained 82 1/4 cents during July.
Weather remains the biggest shared risk for corn, soybeans, and pasture. Drought.gov's July 30 weekly outlook, based on National Weather Service and Climate Prediction Center guidance, said the August 3-7 outlook favors above-normal temperatures across most of the contiguous United States, including the Plains, Midwest, South, Southeast, and Northeast. The same outlook favored above-normal precipitation in parts of the Southwest, western and southern Texas, southern Florida, the Upper Midwest, and the Northeast, while below-normal precipitation was favored in parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, northern Great Basin, and western Plains. For producers, that means rainfall placement may matter as much as national totals this week.
On the cattle side, cash strength is still meeting supply uncertainty. CME's delayed live cattle quotes showed August 2026 live cattle at 231.575 and October at 227.000. Barchart reported that live cattle futures were mixed late last week, with August up $4.67 for the week, USDA cash trade at $232-$233 and some sales up to $235, and the CME Feeder Cattle Index down $1.86 on July 30 to $345.83. USDA ERS said on July 17 that 2026 and 2027 beef production forecasts were lowered by less than 1% because of a slower expected pace of fed cattle slaughter, and ERS raised the 2026 slaughter steer price forecast to $251.10 per cwt. Farm Progress reported USDA confirmed the Douglas, Arizona, port of entry is set to reopen to cattle imports on August 24, 2026, with the initial reopening characterized as a 30-day trial.
The key reports this week start today. USDA NASS lists Crop Progress for release at 4:00 p.m. ET on Monday, August 3. CME's USDA report guide says Crop Progress is released weekly at 4:00 p.m. ET from April through November, and that the report includes crop progress and condition data for corn, soybeans, spring wheat, winter wheat, and other crops. CME also says USDA Export Sales is released each Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. USDA's agency calendar lists Dairy Products and Slaughter Weekly for Thursday, August 6, and Peanut Prices for Friday, August 7. The next WASDE is not this week; USDA's July WASDE document lists the 2026 August WASDE release date as August 12.
For farmers, the practical takeaway is that grain pricing decisions this week should be tied to today's Crop Progress update, the Thursday export-sales read, and localized August rainfall. For corn and soybeans, strong crop development is helpful, but falling good-to-excellent ratings make the next two weeks more important for yield confidence. For wheat growers, harvest progress and spring wheat condition remain the watch points while the market sorts out recent volatility. For ranchers, high cattle prices remain supported by tight supplies, but the late-August Mexico import reopening and recent pullback in feeder and boxed-beef values are worth watching before assuming every rally will hold.